News & Events

The Weekly Wrap - April 15, 2022

The trillion-dollar (nominal) question of the week is whether the 8.5 percent inflation rate recorded in March marks the peak for the cycle. The consensus seems to think it is, if only for statistical reasons. Most notably the so-called base effects will start to kick in this month as comparisons with the inflated prices of a year ago point to slower increases in coming months. Some help should also come from lower gasoline prices, as the decline in crude oil prices in recent weeks have already reduced the cost of filling up at the pump. By itself, that would have a major impact on the headline change in consumer prices, as surging energy prices accounted for nearly three-quarters of the 1.2 percent increase in the consumer price index between February and March – the steepest monthly increase in more than 15 years.