News & Events

The Weekly Wrap - April 29, 2022

The soft landing crowd got a rude awakening this week when the Commerce Department reported that the economy contracted in the first quarter, the first downturn in GDP since the pandemic-induced recession in 2020. To be sure, the markets had no illusion that the annualized 1.4 percent setback meant the economy was in the throes of a recession. For one, the consensus of forecasters had already expected a soft reading for the first quarter, given the timid handover from late last year when Omicron sapped considerable strength from activity and supply shortages had a stifling affect on production. Our tracking models anticipated a growth rate of less than 1 percent.